NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has issued it’s 2010 outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season. Based on the data present, they’re saying we’ve got an 85% chance of an above average season ahead of us. Obviously this is based on statistical data, forecast models, and some subjective forecasting. If it turns out that the CPC is off the mark and we don’t have a busy season, it’s not for lack of lack of want or bad forecasting. Our planet’s atmosphere is fickle, elusive in releasing it’s secrets, and does not provide a good laboratory setting in which to make experiments. Unlike many of the life sciences, atmospheric science doesn’t lend itself well to controlled studies unless you make use of computer models. So, we’ll see how things work out…but my money is on a busy season…and it can still be very busy without a single land-falling hurricane. You can find all the details here.
You don’t see this too often.
From the MN/Canadian border to the TX/Mexico border, there’s a solid like of tornado and severe thunderstorm watches.
As of now, this is a very active day for the high plains and the Dakotas. Overall, a very busy severe weather season in general, especially in Oklahoma.
It was nice reading this on the following statement from the OUN WFO…
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
835 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010
…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
WASHITA AND EASTERN CUSTER COUNTIES…
AT 834 PM CDT…RESEARCH METEOROLOGISTS ARE REPORTING A DEVELOPING
TORNADO LOCATED ABOUT 3 MILES EAST OF CLINTON. RADAR INDICATES THAT
THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CLINTON AND WEATHERFORD.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 64 AND 85.
TORNADOES ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT BECAUSE THEY ARE HARD TO
SEE. TAKE COVER NOW. IF A BASEMENT IS NOT AVAILABLE…MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND
VEHICLES FOR REINFORCED SHELTER. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Research meteorologists, aka Vortex2 crew members, were watching a right-mover in western OK. Indeed, it was nice seeing the hard working research folks given credit where credit is due.
As I’m typing this, central AR has just gone to a HIGH RISK for severe weather including strong/long-track tornadoes. South-central MO is also taking a pounding. Multiple tornadic supercells have developed in a very volatile atmosphere. It’s unusual to start out in a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather and have conditions change so rapidly that the SPC warrants a HIGH RISK. Considering the terrain and thick vegetation, I would not want to be in the path of any of the ongoing storms.
Here’s my point…and post for the month. The people ‘under the gun’ tonight need a NOAA weather radio. So do you. Doesn’t matter even if you live in Portland, OR or Portland, ME. You still need one and they’re very affordable. Here’s a link with more information. They should be as common in homes, workplaces, apartments, etc. as smoke detectors. Someday, it could save your life.