NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has issued it’s 2010 outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season. Based on the data present, they’re saying we’ve got an 85% chance of an above average season ahead of us. Obviously this is based on statistical data, forecast models, and some subjective forecasting. If it turns out that the CPC is off the mark and we don’t have a busy season, it’s not for lack of lack of want or bad forecasting. Our planet’s atmosphere is fickle, elusive in releasing it’s secrets, and does not provide a good laboratory setting in which to make experiments. Unlike many of the life sciences, atmospheric science doesn’t lend itself well to controlled studies unless you make use of computer models. So, we’ll see how things work out…but my money is on a busy season…and it can still be very busy without a single land-falling hurricane. You can find all the details here.
CPC 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Issued 27.5.10