Significant Flooding Event Underway: Overview & Safety Tips #arwx #kswx #okwx #txwx

As of 4:00 PM CDT, a significant flash flooding event is unfolding across parts of Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. The latest forecast discussion from the Tulsa National Weather Service (NWS) underscores this point and doesn’t mince words as to the significant dangers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

337 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .

.DISCUSSION…

…LIFE THREATENING FLOOD POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY…

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN AN EXPANDING PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. OBSERVED RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS BENEATH ANY CONVECTIVE SEGMENT THAT BECOMES ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR TO THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WHILE DIFFLUENT REGION GRADUALLY SPREADS EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TX NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL FORECASTS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON…AND LATER UPDATES MAY NEED TO INCREASE TOTALS A BIT FURTHER ESPECIALLY FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

IMPACT: WET SOILS ALONG WITH MANY LARGER RIVERS NEAR OR CURRENTLY IN FLOOD STAGE WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING. EVEN THE CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL PRODUCE LIFE AND PROPERTY THREATENING FLOODING. THE RAINFALL AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON / OVERNIGHT AND IMPACT WESTERN ARKANSAS. WHILE THE RAINFALL TOTALS MAY TAPER A BIT AS THE UPPER FORCING REMAINS LESS…THE SATURATED CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FLOODING. OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS ORIGINATES ACROSS WESTERN TX AND SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE BULK OF THIS RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION…HEALTHY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO SE OK AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHICH WILL QUICKLY WORSEN ANY ONGOING FLOOD CONDITIONS. A LULL IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

Though rather technical in nature, the basic message behind the forecast discussion is quite simple. Over a vast area of the southern plains, a significant and potentially life-threatening flash flooding potential exists. As a result, the Tulsa NWS has also issued a Flash Flood Watch.

FLOOD WATCH

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

355 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE- TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER- CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL- LATIMER-LE FLORE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ANTLERS…CLAYTON…HUGO…PAWHUSKA… BARTLESVILLE…NOWATA…VINITA…MIAMI…PAWNEE…TULSA… CLAREMORE…PRYOR…JAY…BRISTOW…OKEMAH…OKMULGEE…WAGONER… TAHLEQUAH…STILWELL…MUSKOGEE…EUFAULA…SALLISAW… MCALESTER…STIGLER…WILBURTON…POTEAU

355 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

…FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING…

…LIFE AND PROPERTY THREATENING FLOODING EVENT UNDERWAY…

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA…NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA…INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS…IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA…CHEROKEE…MUSKOGEE…OKFUSKEE AND SEQUOYAH. IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA…ADAIR…CRAIG…CREEK… DELAWARE…MAYES…NOWATA…OKMULGEE…OSAGE…OTTAWA… PAWNEE…ROGERS…TULSA…WAGONER AND WASHINGTON. IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA…CHOCTAW…HASKELL…LATIMER…LE FLORE…MCINTOSH… PITTSBURG AND PUSHMATAHA.

* THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT…AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS.

* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA…ESPECIALLY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MIAMI OKLAHOMA TO HUGO OKLAHOMA. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 9 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS SAME AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

LIFE THREATENING FLOODING CAN QUICKLY DEVELOP WITH THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS…ESPECIALLY NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES. BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD TO UNKNOWN DEPTHS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES.

IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA…KEEP INFORMED…AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. HAVE A MEANS OF RECEIVING ANY WARNINGS ISSUED OVERNIGHT SUCH AS A WEATHER RADIO.

For many parts of Arkansas, Kansas, and Texas, the flooding threat is just as significant. The latest information from your local NWS office can be obtained by NOAA weather radio or clicking your locale on this map which will take you directly to your NWS office. Obviously, the weather media (local and national) outlets of your choice have excellent information as well. Most of the flooding will take place in the Arkansas/Red Basin region. The West Gulf region is also expecting major flooding as well.

Here’s some important flash flooding safety information from the NWS. Remember, Turn Around, Don’t Drown. More people are killed every year from flooding than all other weather hazards combined. Last but not least, here’s some helpful disaster supply kit information from Ready.gov.

Stay safe and stay very weather aware during this event. With knowledge being power, you have all the information at your fingertips to keep you and your loved ones safe.

Cheers!

 

 

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